With the NFL draft looming on the horizon, here is a statistic for all you avid fans: nearly 4% of division one college football players get drafted each year. Does that seem high or low to you? Think about it like this: There are 117 division 1 college teams and on average about 80 players per team. That is a little over 9300 players. There are 250 players drafted each year. So one could say that on any give team there could be 1-2 future NFL players. We know that is not the case with every team in division 1 football; some will have more and some will have none. But 250 seems like a lot doesn’t it? How does someone poised to break into the “big leagues” turn down being in that coveted 4%?
Maybe they make a “Pro” and “Con” list.
- Pro-College: keg parties, college coeds, big man on campus.
- Con-College: Early AM classes, term papers, dorm rooms.
- Pro-Pro: Signing bonuses, financial stability, childhood dream.
- Con-Pro: little fish in a big pond, CBA, new hometown.
If only it were that simple. What we, the public, are not privy to are the factors that go into this heavy hitting decision. For example, Andrew Luck shocked the nation when he decided to spend one more year on the Farm instead of entering the draft, as THE first round pick. There have been many articles slamming Luck’s decision as “rookie-esque”. Turning down an NFL career to finish his degree? Almost unheard of. While it is true that student-athletes benefit from an education, they can risk injury that subsequently results in damage to their future career. That is a risk Luck is willing to take. And why not when you are prepared to return as the number one quarterback, with a 5th ranked team and a new coach that runs the same Harbaugh-style offense.
Education was surely not the only factor in Luck’s or any other college football player’s decision. They have to consider the following:
• Current draft status
• Potential to improve draft status by returning to school
• Potential for injury if returning to school
• Potential NFL work stoppage/labor issues
• Personal finances
• Personal desire to return to school
A player must evaluate how prepared he is to succeed early in his NFL career. There is no such thing as an absolute certainty in the NFL draft process. Recent history has shown that the odds of failure are far greater for underclassmen quarterbacks taken in Round 1 as opposed to senior prospects, which is something Luck probably factored into his decision.
Busts or disappointing
JaMarcus Russell (No. 1 overall, 2007)
Vince Young (No. 3 overall, 2006)
Alex Smith (No. 1 overall, 2005)
Rex Grossman (No. 22 overall, 2003)
Michael Vick (No. 1 overall, 2001)
Tim Couch (No. 1 overall, 1999)
Ryan Leaf (No. 2 overall, 1998)
Heath Shuler (No. 3 overall, 1994)
Successful
Ben Roethlisberger (No. 11 overall, 2004)
Aaron Rodgers (No. 24 overall, 2005)
Trent Dilfer (No. 6 overall, 1994)
Take Bill Parcells' famous quarterback list, for example:
- · He must be a senior
- · He must be a graduate
- · He must be a three-year starter
- · He must have at least 23 wins
Still, percentages and even the criteria of a man like Parcells would not have scared Luck off. The 2009 draft is proof that teams are more than willing to overlook the percentages, if they feel strongly enough about the individual. Matthew Stafford(Lions, No. 1 overall), Mark Sanchez (Jets, No. 5) and Josh Freeman(Buccaneers, No. 17) all failed to meet each of the above criteria, but each has given his team hope early in his career. Immaturity and/or collegiate systems that did not translate well to the NFL led to most of the aforementioned busts/disappointments. Neither of those things is an issue for Luck, who is mature beyond his years and has played in a pro-style system under a former NFL quarterback. Plus, Luck has 25 starts under his belt at the 2010 season's end and a completion percentage of 70.7%. He will play in a possible 15-20 games next season under new head coach David Shaw, with a chance to improve all aspects of his game, win that elusive Heisman and take his team to the BCS national championship. What more could a college athlete ask for?
The fact of the matter is that it takes a certain kind of guy to forgo the money and glamour that draws guys to the NFL in favor of what’s right and what is important. Values are what define us as human beings, and although they differ among us all, we can all agree that sticking to one’s guns is not always the easiest route and definitely the one less travelled. Just look at Pat Tillman, a true American hero. It may not have worked out the way he or his family wanted, but he stood by what he believed in, which in this writer’s opinion is priceless. You can’t put a salary cap on that.
(All stats, numbers and names are drawn from the ESPN.com database)