The Road to March is paved with….

…good percentages.

Take the number one team in the nation, Ohio State.  The Buckeyes are approximately 50% (field goal percentage), 68% (free throw percentage), and 40% (3 point percentage) while they average 78 points per game, they only turn over the ball on average 11 times per game and they have only 259 turnovers total this season.  This is why they are 24-0, undefeated and ranked as high as they are, holding their own in the fierce Big 10. It doesn’t hurt that their best player, Jared Sullinger, averages 18 points per game.  Percentages are everything in college basketball; you can boast an all-star roster, but if you can’t keep your turnover ratio low and your field goal, 3 point, and free throw percentages high…forget about it! 

I don’t care if you average an impressive 27.6 points per game, Jimmer Fredette, and if your Cougars are ranked number 7 in the nation; you still play in the Mountain West and when you step into the big arena come March, bring your stat book.  While BYU is 45.4%, 74.5% and 36.6%, they do have a comparable 11 turnovers per game and only 262 turnovers for the season so far.  Their points per game is a high 83, but given the conference and strength of schedule, I am not surprised. 

The team that is going to give Ohio State the most trouble in the polls and on the court, when they eventually meet, is Kansas.  Percentage wise, they are right on Ohio State’s heels with a 52% field goal percentage, a 66.7% free throw percentage and a 38.6 three point percentage.  They have a high 83 points per game and twin brothers Marcus and Markieff Morris averaging 16.7% and 13.1%, respectively.  Their weakness is clear though in the 14 turnovers per game average, the highest of the top 7 ranked teams and the 312 turnovers they have accumulated this season.  I have faith in Bill Self’s ability to rectify these sloppy numbers come tournament time. 

Close behind the Jayhawks is Texas.  The Longhorns are averaging 46.6% field goals, 46.7% free throws and 38.5% three pointers. Solid numbers, though slightly lower than the top two teams above them.  They average 76 points per game, which is good given their tough Big 12 conference.  The turnovers per game are high at 13, with 289 total turnovers for the season.  Texas’s leading scorer is Jordan Hamilton, averaging 18.9 points per game so far this season and a player of special note is freshman Tristan Thompson who also contributes an impressive 12.7 points per game for the Longhorns. 

Another Mountain West darling, San Diego State University graces us with their presence in the top 10, coming in at number 6 this week in the polls. Everyone’s favorite Cinderella team is taking off their glass slipper and standing on their own merit.  They average 48.1% field goal points, 67.2% at the free thrown line and a bit of a low 35% from the three point arc.  They are averaging 73 points per game, respectable for the Mountain West team and their high scorer is Kawhi Leonard with 15 points per game contributed.  The numbers that’s et them apart is their low turnovers: only averaging 11 per game with a total of 264 for the season.  Their 23-1 record is notable, with their only loss to fellow conference members and 7^th ranked BYU in a heart breaking game for the Aztecs.

Last but not least, the reigning kings of March, the Duke Blue Devils.  Many think that Coach K’s team can’t repeat again, given the quality of teams they are stacked against this year, but percentage wise they are more than capable.  They average 47.8% field goals, and impressive 74.1% from the free throw line and 39.5% from the arc, which is just behind Ohio State.  They average 73 points per game, which is good for the ACC.  They only turn the ball over an average of 12 times per game with a total of 283 for the season so far.  Notable players include Nolan Smith and returning senior Kyle Singler, who average 21 and 18 points per game respectively. 

As an avid college basketball fan, I can attest to the fact that come tournament time, all these number can all but be thrown out the window, so to speak.  But they are important until then; they pave the way.  Percentages lead to good RPI and high rankings, which in turn leads to good seeding come tournament time.  So sharpen your pencils and get out your comp books and keep track.  I know I will be.